WASHINGTON (AP) — With the three presidential debates complete, and amid a steady stream of allegations and revelations about Donald Trump’s treatment of women, the Republican nominee’s poll numbers are casting doubt on his ability to win some traditionally GOP states.
The Associated Press this week moves Arizona, where recent polls have shown a close race and early vote numbers appear positive for the Democratic nominee, to a toss-up.
The AP also moves Texas and Alaska, where surveys have suggested unexpectedly narrow gaps between Trump and Clinton, to leaning Republican.
The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.
Clinton continues to hold a clear lead over Trump nationally, and her current advantage in battleground states would be enough to give her an electoral college victory in November.
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SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state (213 total electoral votes).
LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (59 total electoral votes).
TOSS-UP: Arizona, Florida, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (87 total electoral votes).
LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri, Texas (73 total electoral votes).
SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (106 total electoral votes).
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